ECHO
EchoStar Corporation
$85.93
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 597.7% above fair value
You pay
$85.93
Bear
$6.96
Fair
$12.32
Bull
$18.62
Bear
$6.96
-91.9%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$12.32
-85.7%
17% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$18.62
-78.3%
22% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (17% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
44%
Implied Market Multiple
245.3x
Market is pricing in (growth)
42.9%
vs 17.3% base
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 17% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $12.32 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions