ECG
Everus Construction Group, Inc.
$122.44
Cyclical & Capital-Intensive
70%
Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 152.9% above fair value
You pay
$122.44
Bear
$37.66
Fair
$48.42
Bull
$59.18
Bear
$37.66
-69.2%
$2.69 × 14x
Fair
$48.42
-60.5%
$2.69 × 18x
Bull
$59.18
-51.7%
$2.69 × 22x
Adjust Assumptions
18.0x
2.69$
Key Value Driver
Through-cycle normalized EPS ($2.69)
Implied Market Multiple
45.5x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (6 analysts)
$169.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
71%
Summary
Using 5-year normalized EPS of $2.69 at a 18x cycle multiple, the base-case value is $48.42 per share. P/TBV cross-check: 12.8x.
Warnings
Recent profits ($3.95/share) are 47% above the mid-cycle average ($2.69). Buying based on peak profits is the most common mistake with boom-and-bust businesses.
Price-to-book value of 12.8x is above the normal range for this type of business (0.7x-2.0x). The stock may already price in a strong cycle.
Wall Street's average price target is $169.50 (from 6 analysts). Our estimate is 71% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
- 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
- Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing