EC
Ecopetrol S.A.
$17.57
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 53.9% below fair value
You pay
$17.57
Bear
$18.95
Fair
$38.10
Bull
$61.21
Bear
$18.95
+7.8%
FCF $5770M × 12x
Fair
$38.10
+116.8%
FCF $6788M × 16x
Bull
$61.21
+248.4%
FCF $7806M × 20x
Adjust Assumptions
75.0$/bbl
16.0x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
9.8x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (11 analysts)
$16.85
Divergence from AlphaVal
126%
Summary
At $75/bbl oil with a 16x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $38.10 per share. Range: $18.95 (bear) to $61.21 (bull).
Warnings
Debt per share ($14.73) is significant relative to the stock price. Even small changes in the debt figure meaningfully shift what each share is worth.
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Wall Street's average price target is $16.85 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 126% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Financial statements were converted from COP into USD using USDCOP at 0.0003 USD per COP.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential