EBR
AXIA Energia S.A.
$9.20
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 1891.2% above fair value
You pay
$9.20
Bear
$0.00
Fair
$0.46
Bull
$1.20
Bear
$0.00
-100.0%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$0.46
-95.0%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$1.20
-86.9%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (8% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
37%
Implied Market Multiple
58.9x
Market is pricing in (growth)
23.4%
vs 7.8% base
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 8% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $0.46 per share.
Warnings
Financial statements were converted from BRL into USD using USDBRL at 0.1964 USD per BRL.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions