EBR
AXIA Energia S.A.
$9.20
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 68.7% above fair value
You pay
$9.20
Bear
$4.77
Fair
$5.45
Bull
$6.14
Bear
$4.77
-48.1%
$0.34 × 14x P/E
Fair
$5.45
-40.7%
$0.34 × 16x P/E
Bull
$6.14
-33.3%
$0.34 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
27.0x
Summary
Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.34, the base-case value is $5.45 per share.
Warnings
Financial statements were converted from BRL into USD using USDBRL at 0.1993 USD per BRL.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples