EBF
Ennis, Inc.
$22.12
Stable Earnings Power
65%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 11.2% below fair value
You pay
$22.12
Bear
$19.92
Fair
$24.90
Bull
$29.88
Bear
$19.92
-9.9%
$1.66 × 12x P/E
Fair
$24.90
+12.6%
$1.66 × 15x P/E
Bull
$29.88
+35.1%
$1.66 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
1.66$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
13.3x
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.66, the base-case value is $24.90 per share. DDM cross-check: $14.61.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $14.61 (below our primary estimate by 41%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples