EBF
Ennis, Inc.
$21.33
Stable Earnings Power
65%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 19.7% below fair value
You pay
$21.33
Bear
$21.26
Fair
$26.58
Bull
$31.89
Bear
$21.26
-0.3%
$1.77 × 12x P/E
Fair
$26.58
+24.6%
$1.77 × 15x P/E
Bull
$31.89
+49.5%
$1.77 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
12.0x
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.77, the base-case value is $26.58 per share.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples