EBAY
eBay Inc.
$105.62
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 52.1% above fair value
You pay
$105.62
Bear
$60.76
Fair
$69.44
Bull
$78.12
Bear
$60.76
-42.5%
$4.34 × 14x P/E
Fair
$69.44
-34.3%
$4.34 × 16x P/E
Bull
$78.12
-26.0%
$4.34 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
16.0x
4.34$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
24.3x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (68 analysts)
$117.68
Divergence from AlphaVal
41%
Summary
Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $4.34, the base-case value is $69.44 per share. DDM cross-check: $525.21.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $525.21 (above our primary estimate by 656%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $117.68 (from 68 analysts). Our estimate is 41% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples