EBAY
eBay Inc.
$117.20
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 40.4% above fair value
You pay
$117.20
Bear
$73.05
Fair
$83.48
Bull
$93.92
Bear
$73.05
-37.7%
$4.34 × 14x P/E
Fair
$83.48
-28.8%
$4.34 × 16x P/E
Bull
$93.92
-19.9%
$4.34 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
27.0x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $109.56 from 68 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $83.48 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $109.56 (from 68 analysts). Our estimate is 37% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples