EBAY
eBay Inc.
$115.75
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 38.5% above fair value
You pay
$115.75
Bear
$73.14
Fair
$83.59
Bull
$94.04
Bear
$73.14
-36.8%
$4.34 × 14x P/E
Fair
$83.59
-27.8%
$4.34 × 16x P/E
Bull
$94.04
-18.8%
$4.34 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
26.7x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $109.87 from 68 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $83.59 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $109.87 (from 68 analysts). Our estimate is 37% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples