EBAY eBay Inc.
$117.20
Stable Earnings Power 80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong · Conviction

Overvalued

Trading 40.4% above fair value

You pay $117.20
Bear $73.05
Fair $83.48
Bull $93.92
Bear $73.05 -37.7% $4.34 × 14x P/E
Fair $83.48 -28.8% $4.34 × 16x P/E
Bull $93.92 -19.9% $4.34 × 18x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 27.0x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $109.56 from 68 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $83.48 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $109.56 (from 68 analysts). Our estimate is 37% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples