EAT
Brinker International, Inc.
$137.41
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 33.0% below fair value
You pay
$137.41
Bear
$171.74
Fair
$205.14
Bull
$238.53
Bear
$171.74
+25.0%
$8.35 × 21x P/E
Fair
$205.14
+49.3%
$8.35 × 26x P/E
Bull
$238.53
+73.6%
$8.35 × 30x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (26x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
16.4x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $184.46 from 47 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $205.14 per share.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $41.19 (below our primary estimate by 81%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples