EAT
Brinker International, Inc.
$230.22
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 16.9% below fair value
You pay
$230.22
Bear
$231.99
Fair
$277.09
Bull
$322.20
Bear
$231.99
+0.8%
$10.87 × 21x P/E
Fair
$277.09
+20.4%
$10.87 × 25x P/E
Bull
$322.20
+40.0%
$10.87 × 30x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
25.5x
10.87$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (25x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
21.2x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (48 analysts)
$252.75
Divergence from AlphaVal
10%
Summary
Applying a 25x P/E to adjusted EPS of $10.87, the base-case value is $277.09 per share. DDM cross-check: $41.19.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $41.19 (below our primary estimate by 85%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples