EAT
Brinker International, Inc.
$185.47
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 10.8% below fair value
You pay
$185.47
Bear
$174.09
Fair
$207.95
Bull
$241.79
Bear
$174.09
-6.1%
$8.35 × 21x P/E
Fair
$207.95
+12.1%
$8.35 × 26x P/E
Bull
$241.79
+30.4%
$8.35 × 30x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (26x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
22.2x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $193.83 from 47 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $207.95 per share.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $41.19 (below our primary estimate by 81%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples