E
Eni S.p.A.
$52.40
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 15.1% above fair value
You pay
$52.40
Bear
$21.05
Fair
$45.53
Bull
$75.06
Bear
$21.05
-59.8%
FCF $4488M × 12x
Fair
$45.53
-13.1%
FCF $5280M × 16x
Bull
$75.06
+43.2%
FCF $6072M × 20x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
19.6x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on free cash flow under different commodity price assumptions and a valuation multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $64.30 from 26 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $45.53 per share.
Warnings
Debt per share ($18.96) is significant relative to the stock price. Even small changes in the debt figure meaningfully shift what each share is worth.
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Wall Street's average price target is $64.30 (from 26 analysts). Our estimate is 39% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Financial statements were converted from EUR into USD using EURUSD at 1.1409 USD per EUR.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential