E
Eni S.p.A.
$59.53
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 31.4% below fair value
You pay
$59.53
Bear
$48.60
Fair
$86.83
Bull
$132.97
Bear
$48.60
-18.4%
FCF $8117M × 12x
Fair
$86.83
+45.9%
FCF $9550M × 16x
Bull
$132.97
+123.4%
FCF $10982M × 20x
Adjust Assumptions
75.0$/bbl
16.0x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
11.9x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (26 analysts)
$73.15
Divergence from AlphaVal
19%
Summary
At $75/bbl oil with a 16x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $86.83 per share. Range: $48.60 (bear) to $132.97 (bull).
Warnings
Debt per share ($18.64) is significant relative to the stock price. Even small changes in the debt figure meaningfully shift what each share is worth.
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Financial statements were converted from EUR into USD using EURUSD at 1.1198 USD per EUR.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential