DXPE
DXP Enterprises, Inc.
$182.05
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 82.4% above fair value
You pay
$182.05
Bear
$59.27
Fair
$99.81
Bull
$140.80
Bear
$59.27
-67.4%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$99.81
-45.2%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$140.80
-22.7%
14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
11.1%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (11% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
40%
Implied Market Multiple
37.0x
Market is pricing in (growth)
17.2%
vs 11.2% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (7 analysts)
$220.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
55%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 11% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $99.81 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $220.00 (from 7 analysts). Our estimate is 55% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions