DXPE
DXP Enterprises, Inc.
$185.92
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 86.3% above fair value
You pay
$185.92
Bear
$59.27
Fair
$99.81
Bull
$140.80
Bear
$59.27
-68.1%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$99.81
-46.3%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$140.80
-24.3%
14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
11.1%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (11% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
40%
Implied Market Multiple
37.6x
Market is pricing in (growth)
17.4%
vs 11.2% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (7 analysts)
$187.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
47%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 11% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $99.81 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $187.00 (from 7 analysts). Our estimate is 47% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions