DXCM
DexCom, Inc.
$83.03
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 11.0% below fair value
You pay
$83.03
Bear
$54.61
Fair
$93.31
Bull
$140.15
Bear
$54.61
-34.2%
11% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$93.31
+12.4%
19% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$140.15
+68.8%
24% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
18.7%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (19% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
41%
Implied Market Multiple
31.6x
Market is pricing in (growth)
17.1%
vs 18.7% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (52 analysts)
$89.71
Divergence from AlphaVal
4%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 19% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $93.31 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions