DXCM
DexCom, Inc.
$78.76
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 13.8% below fair value
You pay
$78.76
Bear
$53.94
Fair
$91.36
Bull
$136.34
Bear
$53.94
-31.5%
11% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$91.36
+16.0%
18% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$136.34
+73.1%
24% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
18.4%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (18% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
41%
Implied Market Multiple
30.0x
Market is pricing in (growth)
16.4%
vs 18.4% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (52 analysts)
$96.14
Divergence from AlphaVal
5%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 18% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $91.36 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions