DVAX
Dynavax Technologies Corporation
$15.50
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 3.5% above fair value
You pay
$15.50
Bear
$10.42
Fair
$14.98
Bull
$20.71
Bear
$10.42
-32.8%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$14.98
-3.4%
20% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$20.71
+33.6%
26% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (20% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
46%
Implied Market Multiple
65.7x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $27.00 from 11 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $14.98 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 193% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $27.00 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 56% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions