DVA
DaVita Inc.
$179.25
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 25.7% above fair value
You pay
$179.25
Bear
$114.12
Fair
$142.65
Bull
$171.18
Bear
$114.12
-36.3%
$9.51 × 12x P/E
Fair
$142.65
-20.4%
$9.51 × 15x P/E
Bull
$171.18
-4.5%
$9.51 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
9.51$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
18.8x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (23 analysts)
$235.67
Divergence from AlphaVal
39%
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $9.51, the base-case value is $142.65 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $235.67 (from 23 analysts). Our estimate is 39% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples