DUK
Duke Energy Corporation
$125.67
Stable Earnings Power
85%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 12.9% above fair value
You pay
$125.67
Bear
$97.38
Fair
$111.29
Bull
$125.20
Bear
$97.38
-22.5%
$6.31 × 14x P/E
Fair
$111.29
-11.4%
$6.31 × 16x P/E
Bull
$125.20
-0.4%
$6.31 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
19.9x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $135.40 from 32 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $111.29 per share.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $67.34 (below our primary estimate by 33%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $135.40 (from 32 analysts). Our estimate is 25% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples