DUK
Duke Energy Corporation
$129.24
Stable Earnings Power
85%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 15.7% above fair value
You pay
$129.24
Bear
$97.77
Fair
$111.74
Bull
$125.71
Bear
$97.77
-24.3%
$6.31 × 14x P/E
Fair
$111.74
-13.5%
$6.31 × 16x P/E
Bull
$125.71
-2.7%
$6.31 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
20.5x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $136.89 from 32 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $111.74 per share.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $67.57 (below our primary estimate by 33%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $136.89 (from 32 analysts). Our estimate is 26% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples