DUK
Duke Energy Corporation
$117.57
Stable Earnings Power
85%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 16.5% above fair value
You pay
$117.57
Bear
$88.34
Fair
$100.96
Bull
$113.58
Bear
$88.34
-24.9%
$6.31 × 14x P/E
Fair
$100.96
-14.1%
$6.31 × 16x P/E
Bull
$113.58
-3.4%
$6.31 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
16.0x
6.31$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
18.6x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (32 analysts)
$131.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
23%
Summary
Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $6.31, the base-case value is $100.96 per share. DDM cross-check: $67.80.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $67.80 (below our primary estimate by 33%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples