DT
Dynatrace, Inc.
$59.83
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 8.5% below fair value
You pay
$59.83
Bear
$41.57
Fair
$65.37
Bull
$92.64
Bear
$41.57
-30.5%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$65.37
+9.3%
16% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$92.64
+54.8%
21% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
16.2%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (16% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
44%
Implied Market Multiple
31.2x
Market is pricing in (growth)
14.9%
vs 16.2% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (35 analysts)
$57.94
Divergence from AlphaVal
13%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 16% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $65.37 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions