DT
Dynatrace, Inc.
$41.21
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 29.8% below fair value
You pay
$41.21
Bear
$37.45
Fair
$58.70
Bull
$82.97
Bear
$37.45
-9.1%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$58.70
+42.4%
16% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$82.97
+101.3%
21% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (16% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
44%
Implied Market Multiple
20.9x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $44.29 from 34 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $58.70 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $44.29 (from 34 analysts). Our estimate is 46% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions