DSP
Viant Technology Inc.
$12.64
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 9.5% above fair value
You pay
$12.64
Bear
$9.73
Fair
$11.55
Bull
$13.22
Bear
$9.73
-23.0%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$11.55
-8.6%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$13.22
+4.6%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
7.7%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (8% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
37%
Implied Market Multiple
20.3x
Market is pricing in (growth)
9.2%
vs 7.6% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (13 analysts)
$18.83
Divergence from AlphaVal
39%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 8% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $11.55 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 103% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $18.83 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 39% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions