DSP
Viant Technology Inc.
$12.41
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 5.7% above fair value
You pay
$12.41
Bear
$10.25
Fair
$11.74
Bull
$13.08
Bear
$10.25
-17.4%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$11.74
-5.4%
6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$13.08
+5.4%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (6% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
36%
Implied Market Multiple
19.5x
Market is pricing in (growth)
8.7%
vs 6.2% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $15.50 from 13 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $11.74 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 103% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $15.50 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 30% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions