DRVN
Driven Brands Holdings Inc.
$11.69
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 58.8% below fair value
You pay
$11.69
Bear
$11.83
Fair
$28.35
Bull
$47.11
Bear
$11.83
+1.2%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$28.35
+142.5%
16% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$47.11
+303.0%
20% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
15.8%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (16% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
43%
Implied Market Multiple
20.6x
Market is pricing in (growth)
9.4%
vs 15.8% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (15 analysts)
$15.47
Divergence from AlphaVal
83%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 16% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $28.35 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $15.47 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 83% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions