DRVN
Driven Brands Holdings Inc.
$15.31
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 205.4% above fair value
You pay
$15.31
Bear
$0.00
Fair
$5.01
Bull
$32.35
Bear
$0.00
-100.0%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$5.01
-67.3%
16% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$32.35
+111.3%
20% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (16% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
43%
Implied Market Multiple
60.8x
Market is pricing in (growth)
23.8%
vs 15.8% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $16.09 from 15 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $5.01 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $16.09 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 92% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions