DRI
Darden Restaurants, Inc.
$216.88
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 22.1% below fair value
You pay
$216.88
Bear
$233.02
Fair
$278.33
Bull
$323.64
Bear
$233.02
+7.4%
$10.39 × 22x P/E
Fair
$278.33
+28.3%
$10.39 × 27x P/E
Bull
$323.64
+49.2%
$10.39 × 31x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
26.8x
10.39$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (27x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
20.9x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (59 analysts)
$234.44
Divergence from AlphaVal
19%
Summary
Applying a 27x P/E to adjusted EPS of $10.39, the base-case value is $278.33 per share. DDM cross-check: $381.66.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $381.66 (above our primary estimate by 37%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples