DPZ
Domino's Pizza, Inc.
$309.36
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 18.1% below fair value
You pay
$309.36
Bear
$316.26
Fair
$377.75
Bull
$439.25
Bear
$316.26
+2.2%
$17.57 × 18x P/E
Fair
$377.75
+22.1%
$17.57 × 22x P/E
Bull
$439.25
+42.0%
$17.57 × 25x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
21.5x
17.57$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
17.6x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (52 analysts)
$372.19
Divergence from AlphaVal
1%
Summary
Applying a 22x P/E to adjusted EPS of $17.57, the base-case value is $377.75 per share.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples