DOX
Amdocs Limited
$58.49
Stable Earnings Power
65%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 46.1% below fair value
You pay
$58.49
Bear
$90.90
Fair
$108.58
Bull
$126.25
Bear
$90.90
+55.4%
$5.05 × 18x P/E
Fair
$108.58
+85.6%
$5.05 × 22x P/E
Bull
$126.25
+115.8%
$5.05 × 25x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
21.5x
5.05$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
11.6x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (11 analysts)
$71.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
53%
Summary
Applying a 22x P/E to adjusted EPS of $5.05, the base-case value is $108.58 per share. DDM cross-check: $695.47.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $695.47 (above our primary estimate by 541%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $71.00 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 53% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples