DOW
Dow Inc.
$36.01
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 21.9% below fair value
You pay
$36.01
Bear
$36.89
Fair
$46.12
Bull
$55.34
Bear
$36.89
+2.4%
$3.26 × 12x P/E
Fair
$46.12
+28.1%
$3.26 × 15x P/E
Bull
$55.34
+53.7%
$3.26 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
11.0x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $39.55 from 35 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $46.12 per share.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples