DOV
Dover Corporation
$209.90
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 31.1% above fair value
You pay
$209.90
Bear
$128.09
Fair
$160.11
Bull
$192.13
Bear
$128.09
-39.0%
$8.96 × 12x P/E
Fair
$160.11
-23.7%
$8.96 × 15x P/E
Bull
$192.13
-8.5%
$8.96 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
23.4x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $237.08 from 28 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $160.11 per share.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $30.01 (below our primary estimate by 78%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $237.08 (from 28 analysts). Our estimate is 43% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples