DOV
Dover Corporation
$189.05
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 59.1% above fair value
You pay
$189.05
Bear
$95.04
Fair
$118.80
Bull
$142.56
Bear
$95.04
-49.7%
$7.92 × 12x P/E
Fair
$118.80
-37.2%
$7.92 × 15x P/E
Bull
$142.56
-24.6%
$7.92 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
7.92$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
23.9x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (28 analysts)
$244.78
Divergence from AlphaVal
51%
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $7.92, the base-case value is $118.80 per share. DDM cross-check: $30.08.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $30.08 (below our primary estimate by 75%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $244.78 (from 28 analysts). Our estimate is 51% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples