DOV
Dover Corporation
$203.08
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 25.3% above fair value
You pay
$203.08
Bear
$129.71
Fair
$162.14
Bull
$194.56
Bear
$129.71
-36.1%
$8.96 × 12x P/E
Fair
$162.14
-20.2%
$8.96 × 15x P/E
Bull
$194.56
-4.2%
$8.96 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
22.7x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $245.20 from 28 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $162.14 per share.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $30.01 (below our primary estimate by 78%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $245.20 (from 28 analysts). Our estimate is 45% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples