DORM
Dorman Products, Inc.
$120.40
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 46.9% below fair value
You pay
$120.40
Bear
$191.98
Fair
$226.88
Bull
$261.79
Bear
$191.98
+59.4%
$6.64 × 29x P/E
Fair
$226.88
+88.4%
$6.64 × 34x P/E
Bull
$261.79
+117.4%
$6.64 × 39x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
34.2x
6.64$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (34x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
18.1x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (16 analysts)
$165.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
38%
Summary
Applying a 34x P/E to adjusted EPS of $6.64, the base-case value is $226.88 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $165.00 (from 16 analysts). Our estimate is 38% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples