DORM
Dorman Products, Inc.
$136.58
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 38.3% below fair value
You pay
$136.58
Bear
$187.43
Fair
$221.50
Bull
$255.58
Bear
$187.43
+37.2%
$7.28 × 29x P/E
Fair
$221.50
+62.2%
$7.28 × 34x P/E
Bull
$255.58
+87.1%
$7.28 × 39x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (34x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
18.8x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $140.00 from 16 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $221.50 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $140.00 (from 16 analysts). Our estimate is 78% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples