DORM
Dorman Products, Inc.
$118.08
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 42.4% below fair value
You pay
$118.08
Bear
$173.60
Fair
$205.16
Bull
$236.73
Bear
$173.60
+47.0%
$6.64 × 29x P/E
Fair
$205.16
+73.7%
$6.64 × 34x P/E
Bull
$236.73
+100.5%
$6.64 × 39x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (34x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
17.8x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $140.00 from 16 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $205.16 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $140.00 (from 16 analysts). Our estimate is 62% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples