DOCS Doximity, Inc.
$19.94
Stable Earnings Power 80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild · Conviction

Fair Value

Trading 6.6% below fair value

You pay $19.94
Bear $17.08
Fair $21.35
Bull $25.63
Bear $17.08 -14.3% $0.99 × 15x P/E
Fair $21.35 +7.1% $0.99 × 19x P/E
Bull $25.63 +28.5% $0.99 × 22x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (19x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 20.0x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $29.47 from 23 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $21.35 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $29.47 (from 23 analysts). Our estimate is 37% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples