DOCS
Doximity, Inc.
$27.79
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 6.5% above fair value
You pay
$27.79
Bear
$21.55
Fair
$26.10
Bull
$30.32
Bear
$21.55
-22.4%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$26.10
-6.1%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$30.32
+9.1%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
7.8%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (8% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
37%
Implied Market Multiple
19.7x
Market is pricing in (growth)
8.8%
vs 7.8% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (24 analysts)
$27.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
3%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 8% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $26.10 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 62% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions