DOCS
Doximity, Inc.
$21.15
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 13.6% below fair value
You pay
$21.15
Bear
$21.17
Fair
$24.47
Bull
$27.40
Bear
$21.17
+0.1%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$24.47
+15.7%
6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$27.40
+29.5%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (6% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
35%
Implied Market Multiple
14.2x
Market is pricing in (growth)
4.4%
vs 6.1% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $27.63 from 23 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $24.47 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 62% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions