DOC
Healthpeak Properties, Inc.
$22.27
Real Estate Investment Trust
85%
P/FFO × Healthcare REIT Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 11.5% below fair value
You pay
$22.27
Bear
$19.72
Fair
$25.16
Bull
$30.59
Bear
$19.72
-11.5%
$1.64 FFO × 16x
Fair
$25.16
+13.0%
$1.64 FFO × 21x
Bull
$30.59
+37.4%
$1.64 FFO × 26x
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($1.64) × healthcare P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
13.6x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Healthcare REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $22.14 from 41 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $25.16 per share.
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
The 1.8% yield is low for a real estate company — investors are paying up because they expect above-average growth.
Dividend-based valuation: $7.58 (71% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify