DOC
Healthpeak Properties, Inc.
$19.73
Real Estate Investment Trust
85%
P/FFO × Healthcare REIT Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 17.9% below fair value
You pay
$19.73
Bear
$18.84
Fair
$24.04
Bull
$29.23
Bear
$18.84
-4.5%
$1.64 FFO × 16x
Fair
$24.04
+21.9%
$1.64 FFO × 21x
Bull
$29.23
+48.2%
$1.64 FFO × 26x
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($1.64) × healthcare P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
12.0x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Healthcare REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $18.43 from 41 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $24.04 per share.
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend-based valuation: $7.58 (71% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $18.43 (from 41 analysts). Our estimate is 44% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify