DOC
Healthpeak Properties, Inc.
$19.25
Real Estate Investment Trust
85%
P/FFO × Healthcare REIT Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 25.0% below fair value
You pay
$19.25
Bear
$20.12
Fair
$25.66
Bull
$31.19
Bear
$20.12
+4.5%
$1.59 FFO × 16x
Fair
$25.66
+33.3%
$1.59 FFO × 21x
Bull
$31.19
+62.0%
$1.59 FFO × 26x
Adjust Assumptions
21.1x
$
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($1.59) × healthcare P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
12.1x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (41 analysts)
$22.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
17%
Summary
At $1.59 FFO/share with a 21x healthcare REIT multiple, the base-case value is $25.66 per share. Dividend yield: 2.1%. DDM cross-check: $7.58.
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend-based valuation: $7.58 (70% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify