DOC
Healthpeak Properties, Inc.
$20.39
Real Estate Investment Trust
85%
P/FFO × Healthcare REIT Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 22.9% below fair value
You pay
$20.39
Bear
$20.73
Fair
$26.45
Bull
$32.16
Bear
$20.73
+1.7%
$1.64 FFO × 16x
Fair
$26.45
+29.7%
$1.64 FFO × 21x
Bull
$32.16
+57.7%
$1.64 FFO × 26x
Adjust Assumptions
21.1x
$
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($1.64) × healthcare P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
12.4x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (41 analysts)
$22.38
Divergence from AlphaVal
18%
Summary
At $1.64 FFO/share with a 21x healthcare REIT multiple, the base-case value is $26.45 per share. Dividend yield: 2.0%. DDM cross-check: $7.58.
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
The 2.0% yield is low for a real estate company — investors are paying up because they expect above-average growth.
Dividend-based valuation: $7.58 (71% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify