DLX
Deluxe Corporation
$23.18
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 14.1% below fair value
You pay
$23.18
Bear
$21.60
Fair
$27.00
Bull
$32.40
Bear
$21.60
-6.8%
$1.80 × 12x P/E
Fair
$27.00
+16.5%
$1.80 × 15x P/E
Bull
$32.40
+39.8%
$1.80 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
1.8$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
12.9x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (6 analysts)
$31.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
13%
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.80, the base-case value is $27.00 per share.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples