DLTR
Dollar Tree, Inc.
$124.41
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 38.4% below fair value
You pay
$124.41
Bear
$166.32
Fair
$201.96
Bull
$237.60
Bear
$166.32
+33.7%
$5.94 × 28x P/E
Fair
$201.96
+62.3%
$5.94 × 34x P/E
Bull
$237.60
+91.0%
$5.94 × 40x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
34.0x
5.94$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (34x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
20.9x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (49 analysts)
$139.33
Divergence from AlphaVal
45%
Summary
Applying a 34x P/E to adjusted EPS of $5.94, the base-case value is $201.96 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $139.33 (from 49 analysts). Our estimate is 45% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples