DKS
DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc.
$136.96
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 637.5% above fair value
You pay
$136.96
Bear
$0.00
Fair
$18.57
Bull
$43.60
Bear
$0.00
-100.0%
6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$18.57
-86.4%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$43.60
-68.2%
14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
10.5%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (11% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
39%
Implied Market Multiple
50.9x
Market is pricing in (growth)
21.4%
vs 10.5% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (65 analysts)
$153.30
Divergence from AlphaVal
88%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 11% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $18.57 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $153.30 (from 65 analysts). Our estimate is 88% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions