DKS
DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc.
$231.24
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 87.7% above fair value
You pay
$231.24
Bear
$42.37
Fair
$123.22
Bull
$203.95
Bear
$42.37
-81.7%
6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$123.22
-46.7%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$203.95
-11.8%
14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (11% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
39%
Implied Market Multiple
53.2x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $251.43 from 64 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $123.22 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $251.43 (from 64 analysts). Our estimate is 78% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions