DKS
DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc.
$208.89
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 61.2% above fair value
You pay
$208.89
Bear
$45.03
Fair
$129.58
Bull
$214.53
Bear
$45.03
-78.4%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$129.58
-38.0%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$214.53
+2.7%
14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (11% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
40%
Implied Market Multiple
50.3x
Market is pricing in (growth)
21.3%
vs 10.9% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $268.00 from 64 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $129.58 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $268.00 (from 64 analysts). Our estimate is 79% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions