DK
Delek US Holdings, Inc.
$77.47
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 7.5% above fair value
You pay
$77.47
Bear
$55.93
Fair
$72.07
Bull
$81.75
Bear
$55.93
-27.8%
FCF $615M × 10x
Fair
$72.07
-7.0%
FCF $550M × 13x
Bull
$81.75
+5.5%
FCF $484M × 16x
Adjust Assumptions
75.0$/bbl
13.0x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
13.6x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (26 analysts)
$84.83
Divergence from AlphaVal
15%
Summary
At $75/bbl oil with a 13x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $72.07 per share. Range: $55.93 (bear) to $81.75 (bull).
Warnings
Debt per share ($44.49) is significant relative to the stock price. Even small changes in the debt figure meaningfully shift what each share is worth.
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential