DIS
The Walt Disney Company
$103.00
Platform & Compounding FCF
75%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 19.7% above fair value
You pay
$103.00
Bear
$63.86
Fair
$86.07
Bull
$106.28
Bear
$63.86
-38.0%
4% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$86.07
-16.4%
7% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$106.28
+3.2%
9% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (7% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
32%
Implied Market Multiple
24.1x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $138.33 from 63 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $86.07 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $138.33 (from 63 analysts). Our estimate is 58% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions