DIS
The Walt Disney Company
$105.29
Platform & Compounding FCF
75%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 34.2% above fair value
You pay
$105.29
Bear
$58.70
Fair
$78.47
Bull
$96.64
Bear
$58.70
-44.3%
5% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$78.47
-25.5%
8% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$96.64
-8.2%
10% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
7.6%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (8% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
33%
Implied Market Multiple
20.1x
Market is pricing in (growth)
10.9%
vs 7.6% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (64 analysts)
$126.30
Divergence from AlphaVal
38%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 8% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $78.47 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $126.30 (from 64 analysts). Our estimate is 38% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions