DIS
The Walt Disney Company
$97.67
Platform & Compounding FCF
75%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 15.8% above fair value
You pay
$97.67
Bear
$61.61
Fair
$84.35
Bull
$105.25
Bear
$61.61
-36.9%
5% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$84.35
-13.6%
8% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$105.25
+7.8%
10% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (8% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
33%
Implied Market Multiple
23.1x
Market is pricing in (growth)
12.8%
vs 7.6% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $129.71 from 63 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $84.35 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $129.71 (from 63 analysts). Our estimate is 54% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions