DIS
The Walt Disney Company
$111.80
Platform & Compounding FCF
75%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 41.7% above fair value
You pay
$111.80
Bear
$59.03
Fair
$78.91
Bull
$97.19
Bear
$59.03
-47.2%
5% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$78.91
-29.4%
8% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$97.19
-13.1%
10% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
7.6%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (8% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
33%
Implied Market Multiple
21.0x
Market is pricing in (growth)
11.5%
vs 7.6% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (64 analysts)
$125.67
Divergence from AlphaVal
37%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 8% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $78.91 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $125.67 (from 64 analysts). Our estimate is 37% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions