DINO
HF Sinclair Corporation
$128.23
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 102.4% above fair value
You pay
$128.23
Bear
$52.82
Fair
$63.35
Bull
$69.66
Bear
$52.82
-58.8%
FCF $1164M × 10x
Fair
$63.35
-50.6%
FCF $1040M × 13x
Bull
$69.66
-45.7%
FCF $915M × 16x
Adjust Assumptions
75.0$/bbl
13.0x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
24.1x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (17 analysts)
$120.25
Divergence from AlphaVal
47%
Summary
At $75/bbl oil with a 13x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $63.35 per share. Range: $52.82 (bear) to $69.66 (bull).
Warnings
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Wall Street's average price target is $120.25 (from 17 analysts). Our estimate is 47% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential