DINO
HF Sinclair Corporation
$78.07
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 41.0% above fair value
You pay
$78.07
Bear
$33.01
Fair
$55.38
Bull
$81.58
Bear
$33.01
-57.7%
FCF $762M × 10x
Fair
$55.38
-29.1%
FCF $866M × 13x
Bull
$81.58
+4.5%
FCF $970M × 16x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
18.9x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on free cash flow under different commodity price assumptions and a valuation multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $71.67 from 16 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $55.38 per share.
Warnings
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Wall Street's average price target is $71.67 (from 16 analysts). Our estimate is 30% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential