DIN Dine Brands Global, Inc.
$30.86
Stable Earnings Power 80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong · Conviction

Undervalued

Trading 63.4% below fair value

You pay $30.86
Bear $69.44
Fair $84.32
Bull $99.20
Bear $69.44 +125.0% $4.96 × 14x P/E
Fair $84.32 +173.2% $4.96 × 17x P/E
Bull $99.20 +221.5% $4.96 × 20x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

17.0x
4.96$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 6.2x

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.

Average Target (24 analysts) $34.33
Divergence from AlphaVal 146%

Summary

Applying a 17x P/E to adjusted EPS of $4.96, the base-case value is $84.32 per share.

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 343%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Wall Street's average price target is $34.33 (from 24 analysts). Our estimate is 146% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples