DIN
Dine Brands Global, Inc.
$35.68
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 49.9% below fair value
You pay
$35.68
Bear
$58.71
Fair
$71.28
Bull
$83.87
Bear
$58.71
+64.5%
$5.04 × 14x P/E
Fair
$71.28
+99.8%
$5.04 × 17x P/E
Bull
$83.87
+135.0%
$5.04 × 20x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
7.1x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $28.00 from 24 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $71.28 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 350%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
The company pays out 96% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Wall Street's average price target is $28.00 (from 24 analysts). Our estimate is 206% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples