DIN
Dine Brands Global, Inc.
$30.37
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 58.0% below fair value
You pay
$30.37
Bear
$59.60
Fair
$72.36
Bull
$85.14
Bear
$59.60
+96.2%
$5.04 × 14x P/E
Fair
$72.36
+138.3%
$5.04 × 17x P/E
Bull
$85.14
+180.3%
$5.04 × 20x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
6.0x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $32.33 from 24 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $72.36 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 350%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
The company pays out 96% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Wall Street's average price target is $32.33 (from 24 analysts). Our estimate is 165% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples