DHT
DHT Holdings, Inc.
$20.07
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 2.1% above fair value
You pay
$20.07
Bear
$15.72
Fair
$19.65
Bull
$23.58
Bear
$15.72
-21.7%
$1.31 × 12x P/E
Fair
$19.65
-2.1%
$1.31 × 15x P/E
Bull
$23.58
+17.5%
$1.31 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
1.31$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
15.3x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (16 analysts)
$12.07
Divergence from AlphaVal
63%
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.31, the base-case value is $19.65 per share.
Warnings
The company pays out 187% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Wall Street's average price target is $12.07 (from 16 analysts). Our estimate is 63% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples