DHR Danaher Corporation
$216.07
Stable Earnings Power 80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong · Conviction

Overvalued

Trading 125.8% above fair value

You pay $216.07
Bear $76.56
Fair $95.70
Bull $114.84
Bear $76.56 -64.6% $6.38 × 12x P/E
Fair $95.70 -55.7% $6.38 × 15x P/E
Bull $114.84 -46.9% $6.38 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
6.38$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 33.9x

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.

Average Target (43 analysts) $221.58
Divergence from AlphaVal 57%

Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $6.38, the base-case value is $95.70 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $221.58 (from 43 analysts). Our estimate is 57% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples