DFH
Dream Finders Homes, Inc.
$14.76
Cyclical & Capital-Intensive
80%
Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 64.7% below fair value
You pay
$14.76
Bear
$32.48
Fair
$41.76
Bull
$51.04
Bear
$32.48
+120.1%
$2.32 × 14x
Fair
$41.76
+182.9%
$2.32 × 18x
Bull
$51.04
+245.8%
$2.32 × 22x
Adjust Assumptions
18.0x
2.32$
Key Value Driver
Through-cycle normalized EPS ($2.32)
Implied Market Multiple
6.4x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (5 analysts)
$38.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
10%
Summary
Using 7-year normalized EPS of $2.32 at a 18x cycle multiple, the base-case value is $41.76 per share. P/TBV cross-check: 1.1x.
Key Risks
- Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
- 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
- Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing