DELL
Dell Technologies Inc.
$567.14
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 251.6% above fair value
You pay
$567.14
Bear
$133.62
Fair
$161.32
Bull
$185.43
Bear
$133.62
-76.4%
3% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$161.32
-71.6%
6% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$185.43
-67.3%
7% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
5.5%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (6% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
31%
Implied Market Multiple
42.7x
Market is pricing in (growth)
21.2%
vs 5.5% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (45 analysts)
$562.71
Divergence from AlphaVal
71%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 6% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $161.32 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $562.71 (from 45 analysts). Our estimate is 71% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions