DELL
Dell Technologies Inc.
$467.24
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 177.2% above fair value
You pay
$467.24
Bear
$139.60
Fair
$168.54
Bull
$193.73
Bear
$139.60
-70.1%
3% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$168.54
-63.9%
6% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$193.73
-58.5%
7% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
5.5%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (6% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
31%
Implied Market Multiple
34.1x
Market is pricing in (growth)
18.1%
vs 5.5% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (45 analysts)
$564.65
Divergence from AlphaVal
70%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 6% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $168.54 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $564.65 (from 45 analysts). Our estimate is 70% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions