DELL Dell Technologies Inc.
$426.54
Stable Earnings Power 65%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong · Conviction

Overvalued

Trading 78.7% above fair value

You pay $426.54
Bear $190.92
Fair $238.67
Bull $286.39
Bear $190.92 -55.2% $9.24 × 12x P/E
Fair $238.67 -44.0% $9.24 × 15x P/E
Bull $286.39 -32.9% $9.24 × 18x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 46.2x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $472.23 from 45 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $238.67 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $472.23 (from 45 analysts). Our estimate is 71% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples