DECK
Deckers Outdoor Corporation
$106.67
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 26.7% below fair value
You pay
$106.67
Bear
$127.38
Fair
$145.58
Bull
$163.78
Bear
$127.38
+19.4%
$7.03 × 20x P/E
Fair
$145.58
+36.5%
$7.03 × 23x P/E
Bull
$163.78
+53.5%
$7.03 × 26x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (23x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
15.2x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $117.93 from 56 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $145.58 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $117.93 (from 56 analysts). Our estimate is 36% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples