DECK
Deckers Outdoor Corporation
$85.71
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 46.5% below fair value
You pay
$85.71
Bear
$140.24
Fair
$160.28
Bull
$180.31
Bear
$140.24
+63.6%
$7.02 × 20x P/E
Fair
$160.28
+87.0%
$7.02 × 23x P/E
Bull
$180.31
+110.4%
$7.02 × 26x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
22.8x
7.02$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (23x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
12.2x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (56 analysts)
$114.93
Divergence from AlphaVal
39%
Summary
Applying a 23x P/E to adjusted EPS of $7.02, the base-case value is $160.28 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $114.93 (from 56 analysts). Our estimate is 39% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples