DDS
Dillard's, Inc.
$523.78
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 10.0% below fair value
You pay
$523.78
Bear
$509.03
Fair
$581.75
Bull
$654.47
Bear
$509.03
-2.8%
$36.44 × 14x P/E
Fair
$581.75
+11.1%
$36.44 × 16x P/E
Bull
$654.47
+25.0%
$36.44 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
14.4x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $557.50 from 13 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $581.75 per share.
Warnings
The company pays out 85% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples