DDS
Dillard's, Inc.
$695.35
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 18.3% above fair value
You pay
$695.35
Bear
$514.33
Fair
$587.81
Bull
$661.29
Bear
$514.33
-26.0%
$36.44 × 14x P/E
Fair
$587.81
-15.5%
$36.44 × 16x P/E
Bull
$661.29
-4.9%
$36.44 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
16.1x
36.44$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
19.1x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (13 analysts)
$468.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
26%
Summary
Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $36.44, the base-case value is $587.81 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $468.00 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 26% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples