DDD 3D Systems Corporation
$3.15
Stable Earnings Power 50%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild · Conviction

Fair Value

Trading 11.8% below fair value

You pay $3.15
Bear $2.86
Fair $3.57
Bull $4.30
Bear $2.86 -9.2% $0.20 × 12x P/E
Fair $3.57 +13.4% $0.20 × 15x P/E
Bull $4.30 +36.4% $0.20 × 18x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 15.9x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $5.00 from 36 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $3.57 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $5.00 (from 36 analysts). Our estimate is 41% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples