DDD
3D Systems Corporation
$2.78
Stable Earnings Power
50%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 22.0% below fair value
You pay
$2.78
Bear
$2.85
Fair
$3.56
Bull
$4.28
Bear
$2.85
+2.6%
$0.20 × 12x P/E
Fair
$3.56
+28.2%
$0.20 × 15x P/E
Bull
$4.28
+53.9%
$0.20 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
14.1x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $5.00 from 36 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $3.56 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $5.00 (from 36 analysts). Our estimate is 41% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples