DDD 3D Systems Corporation
$3.46
Stable Earnings Power 40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate · Conviction

Overvalued

Trading 21.4% above fair value

You pay $3.46
Bear $2.28
Fair $2.85
Bull $3.42
Bear $2.28 -34.1% $0.19 × 12x P/E
Fair $2.85 -17.6% $0.19 × 15x P/E
Bull $3.42 -1.2% $0.19 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
0.19$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 18.2x

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.

Average Target (36 analysts) $5.50
Divergence from AlphaVal 48%

Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.19, the base-case value is $2.85 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $5.50 (from 36 analysts). Our estimate is 48% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples