DDD
3D Systems Corporation
$3.02
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 6.0% above fair value
You pay
$3.02
Bear
$2.28
Fair
$2.85
Bull
$3.42
Bear
$2.28
-24.5%
$0.19 × 12x P/E
Fair
$2.85
-5.6%
$0.19 × 15x P/E
Bull
$3.42
+13.2%
$0.19 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
0.19$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
15.9x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (36 analysts)
$6.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
52%
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.19, the base-case value is $2.85 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $6.00 (from 36 analysts). Our estimate is 52% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples