DCH
Dauch Corp.
$6.99
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 773.8% above fair value
You pay
$6.99
Bear
$0.70
Fair
$0.80
Bull
$0.90
Bear
$0.70
-90.0%
$0.05 × 14x P/E
Fair
$0.80
-88.6%
$0.05 × 16x P/E
Bull
$0.90
-87.1%
$0.05 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
16.0x
0.05$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
139.8x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (28 analysts)
$8.75
Divergence from AlphaVal
91%
Summary
Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.05, the base-case value is $0.80 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $8.75 (from 28 analysts). Our estimate is 91% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples