DBRG
DigitalBridge Group, Inc.
$16.00
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 518.4% above fair value
Bear
$2.59
-83.8%
ROTCE 4.0% → 0.30x TBV
Fair
$2.59
-83.8%
ROTCE 5.2% → 0.30x TBV
Bull
$2.59
-83.8%
ROTCE 6.0% → 0.30x TBV
Adjust Assumptions
5.2%
12.4%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (5.2%) vs. cost of equity (12.4%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.86x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (12 analysts)
$21.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
88%
Summary
With ROTCE of 5.2% vs. 12.4% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 0.30x on $8.62 tangible book, implying $2.59 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Return on equity (5.2%) is below the minimum investors require (12.4%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.
Wall Street's average price target is $21.00 (from 12 analysts). Our estimate is 88% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly