DBOEY
Deutsche Börse AG
$34.28
Platform & Compounding FCF
65%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 17.9% above fair value
You pay
$34.28
Bear
$29.06
Fair
$29.06
Bull
$30.56
Bear
$29.06
-15.2%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$29.06
-15.2%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$30.56
-10.9%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
3.0%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (3% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
33%
Implied Market Multiple
15.9x
Market is pricing in (growth)
5.9%
vs 3.0% base
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 3% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $29.06 per share.
Warnings
Financial statements were converted from EUR into USD using EURUSD at 1.1231 USD per EUR.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions