DBD
Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated
$65.62
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 20.2% above fair value
You pay
$65.62
Bear
$45.72
Fair
$54.61
Bull
$63.50
Bear
$45.72
-30.3%
$2.54 × 18x P/E
Fair
$54.61
-16.8%
$2.54 × 22x P/E
Bull
$63.50
-3.2%
$2.54 × 25x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
21.5x
2.54$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
25.8x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (13 analysts)
$100.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
45%
Summary
Applying a 22x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.54, the base-case value is $54.61 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $100.00 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 45% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples