DBD
Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated
$74.30
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 54.6% below fair value
You pay
$74.30
Bear
$136.94
Fair
$163.56
Bull
$190.19
Bear
$136.94
+84.3%
$8.35 × 18x P/E
Fair
$163.56
+120.1%
$8.35 × 22x P/E
Bull
$190.19
+156.0%
$8.35 × 25x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
8.9x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $100.00 from 13 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $163.56 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 229%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Wall Street's average price target is $100.00 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 79% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples