DB
Deutsche Bank AG
$35.37
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
90%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 17.4% below fair value
You pay
$35.37
Bear
$24.67
Fair
$42.82
Bull
$53.71
Bear
$24.67
-30.2%
ROTCE 7.3% → 0.58x TBV
Fair
$42.82
+21.1%
ROTCE 9.8% → 1.01x TBV
Bull
$53.71
+51.9%
ROTCE 11.2% → 1.27x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (9.8%) vs. cost of equity (9.7%)
Implied Market Multiple
0.83x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $43.00 from 33 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $42.82 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Financial statements were converted from EUR into USD using EURUSD at 1.1407 USD per EUR.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly