DB
Deutsche Bank AG
$34.97
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
90%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 17.0% below fair value
You pay
$34.97
Bear
$24.28
Fair
$42.14
Bull
$52.85
Bear
$24.28
-30.6%
ROTCE 7.3% → 0.57x TBV
Fair
$42.14
+20.5%
ROTCE 9.8% → 0.99x TBV
Bull
$52.85
+51.1%
ROTCE 11.2% → 1.24x TBV
Adjust Assumptions
9.8%
9.8%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (9.8%) vs. cost of equity (9.8%)
Implied Market Multiple
0.82x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (33 analysts)
$43.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
2%
Summary
With ROTCE of 9.8% vs. 9.8% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 0.99x on $42.58 tangible book, implying $42.14 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Return on equity (9.8%) is below the minimum investors require (9.8%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.
Financial statements were converted from EUR into USD using EURUSD at 1.1256 USD per EUR.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly