DB
Deutsche Bank AG
$32.43
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
90%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 5.7% below fair value
You pay
$32.43
Bear
$19.82
Fair
$34.39
Bull
$43.14
Bear
$19.82
-38.9%
ROTCE 7.3% → 0.57x TBV
Fair
$34.39
+6.1%
ROTCE 9.8% → 0.99x TBV
Bull
$43.14
+33.0%
ROTCE 11.2% → 1.24x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (9.8%) vs. cost of equity (9.8%)
Implied Market Multiple
0.75x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $14.87 from 33 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $34.39 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Return on equity (9.8%) is below the minimum investors require (9.8%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.
Wall Street's average price target is $14.87 (from 33 analysts). Our estimate is 188% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Financial statements were converted from EUR into USD using EURUSD at 1.1607 USD per EUR.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly