DAY
Dayforce Inc
$69.86
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 476.4% above fair value
You pay
$69.86
Bear
$5.82
Fair
$12.12
Bull
$19.38
Bear
$5.82
-91.7%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$12.12
-82.7%
16% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$19.38
-72.3%
21% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
16.4%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (16% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
44%
Implied Market Multiple
159.0x
Market is pricing in (growth)
36.8%
vs 16.4% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (22 analysts)
$67.71
Divergence from AlphaVal
82%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 16% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $12.12 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 859% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $67.71 (from 22 analysts). Our estimate is 82% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions