DAY
Dayforce Inc
$69.86
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 206.1% above fair value
You pay
$69.86
Bear
$9.35
Fair
$22.82
Bull
$38.39
Bear
$9.35
-86.6%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$22.82
-67.3%
16% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$38.39
-45.1%
21% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (16% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
44%
Implied Market Multiple
215.6x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $67.71 from 22 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $22.82 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 859% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $67.71 (from 22 analysts). Our estimate is 88% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions