DASH
DoorDash, Inc.
$160.25
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 4.3% below fair value
You pay
$160.25
Bear
$95.43
Fair
$167.47
Bull
$257.38
Bear
$95.43
-40.5%
12% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$167.47
+4.5%
20% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$257.38
+60.6%
26% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (20% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
42%
Implied Market Multiple
49.1x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $257.92 from 38 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $167.47 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 112% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $257.92 (from 38 analysts). Our estimate is 50% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions