DASH
DoorDash, Inc.
$192.79
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 47.7% above fair value
You pay
$192.79
Bear
$74.81
Fair
$130.49
Bull
$199.98
Bear
$74.81
-61.2%
12% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$130.49
-32.3%
20% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$199.98
+3.7%
26% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
20.0%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (20% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
42%
Implied Market Multiple
58.7x
Market is pricing in (growth)
25.5%
vs 20.0% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (40 analysts)
$252.93
Divergence from AlphaVal
48%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 20% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $130.49 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 112% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $252.93 (from 40 analysts). Our estimate is 48% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions