DASH
DoorDash, Inc.
$177.73
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 7.7% above fair value
You pay
$177.73
Bear
$94.61
Fair
$165.04
Bull
$252.90
Bear
$94.61
-46.8%
12% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$165.04
-7.1%
20% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$252.90
+42.3%
26% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (20% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
42%
Implied Market Multiple
54.3x
Market is pricing in (growth)
24.4%
vs 20.0% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $247.33 from 38 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $165.04 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 112% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $247.33 (from 38 analysts). Our estimate is 48% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions