DASH
DoorDash, Inc.
$195.52
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 18.2% above fair value
You pay
$195.52
Bear
$94.81
Fair
$165.39
Bull
$253.44
Bear
$94.81
-51.5%
12% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$165.39
-15.4%
20% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$253.44
+29.6%
26% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (20% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
42%
Implied Market Multiple
59.9x
Market is pricing in (growth)
25.8%
vs 20.0% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $248.50 from 38 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $165.39 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 112% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $248.50 (from 38 analysts). Our estimate is 48% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions