DAN
Dana Incorporated
$27.38
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 5.1% above fair value
You pay
$27.38
Bear
$22.81
Fair
$26.05
Bull
$29.31
Bear
$22.81
-16.7%
$1.43 × 14x P/E
Fair
$26.05
-4.8%
$1.43 × 16x P/E
Bull
$29.31
+7.1%
$1.43 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
19.1x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $35.40 from 24 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $26.05 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 124%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Dividend-based valuation: $9.16 (below our primary estimate by 60%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $35.40 (from 24 analysts). Our estimate is 35% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples