DAN
Dana Incorporated
$34.16
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 29.1% above fair value
You pay
$34.16
Bear
$23.16
Fair
$26.46
Bull
$29.76
Bear
$23.16
-32.2%
$1.43 × 14x P/E
Fair
$26.46
-22.6%
$1.43 × 16x P/E
Bull
$29.76
-12.9%
$1.43 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
23.8x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $37.00 from 24 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $26.46 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 124%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Dividend-based valuation: $7.38 (below our primary estimate by 68%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $37.00 (from 24 analysts). Our estimate is 38% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples