DAN
Dana Incorporated
$29.02
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 183.4% above fair value
You pay
$29.02
Bear
$8.96
Fair
$10.24
Bull
$11.52
Bear
$8.96
-69.1%
$0.64 × 14x P/E
Fair
$10.24
-64.7%
$0.64 × 16x P/E
Bull
$11.52
-60.3%
$0.64 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
16.0x
0.64$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
45.3x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (24 analysts)
$36.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
72%
Summary
Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.64, the base-case value is $10.24 per share. DDM cross-check: $9.16.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $36.00 (from 24 analysts). Our estimate is 72% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples