DAL
Delta Air Lines, Inc.
$76.14
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 17.3% below fair value
You pay
$76.14
Bear
$63.56
Fair
$92.07
Bull
$119.67
Bear
$63.56
-16.5%
6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$92.07
+20.9%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$119.67
+57.2%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (9% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
38%
Implied Market Multiple
17.4x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $83.91 from 44 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $92.07 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions