DAL
Delta Air Lines, Inc.
$74.63
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 19.0% below fair value
You pay
$74.63
Bear
$65.25
Fair
$92.14
Bull
$117.80
Bear
$65.25
-12.6%
5% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$92.14
+23.5%
9% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$117.80
+57.8%
12% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
9.1%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (9% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
34%
Implied Market Multiple
15.0x
Market is pricing in (growth)
6.8%
vs 9.1% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (45 analysts)
$103.36
Divergence from AlphaVal
11%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 9% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $92.14 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions