DAKT
Daktronics, Inc.
$17.64
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 64.3% above fair value
You pay
$17.64
Bear
$10.06
Fair
$10.74
Bull
$11.52
Bear
$10.06
-43.0%
3% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$10.74
-39.1%
4% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$11.52
-34.7%
5% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
4.2%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (4% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
30%
Implied Market Multiple
22.7x
Market is pricing in (growth)
12.6%
vs 4.2% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (5 analysts)
$31.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
65%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 4% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $10.74 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $31.00 (from 5 analysts). Our estimate is 65% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions