DAKT
Daktronics, Inc.
$21.74
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 55.3% above fair value
You pay
$21.74
Bear
$13.13
Fair
$14.00
Bull
$15.01
Bear
$13.13
-39.6%
3% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$14.00
-35.6%
4% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$15.01
-31.0%
5% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (4% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
30%
Implied Market Multiple
30.6x
Market is pricing in (growth)
16.6%
vs 4.2% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $29.00 from 5 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $14.00 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $29.00 (from 5 analysts). Our estimate is 65% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions