D
Dominion Energy, Inc.
$65.20
Stable Earnings Power
85%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 18.1% above fair value
You pay
$65.20
Bear
$48.30
Fair
$55.20
Bull
$62.10
Bear
$48.30
-25.9%
$3.45 × 14x P/E
Fair
$55.20
-15.3%
$3.45 × 16x P/E
Bull
$62.10
-4.8%
$3.45 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
16.0x
3.45$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
18.9x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (33 analysts)
$70.11
Divergence from AlphaVal
21%
Summary
Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $3.45, the base-case value is $55.20 per share. DDM cross-check: $38.52.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $38.52 (below our primary estimate by 30%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples