CZR
Caesars Entertainment, Inc.
$29.77
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 218.8% above fair value
Bear
$0.00
-100.0%
3% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$9.34
-68.6%
5% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$0.00
-100.0%
6% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (5% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
30%
Implied Market Multiple
47.5x
Market is pricing in (growth)
22.6%
vs 4.5% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $31.13 from 31 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $9.34 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $31.13 (from 31 analysts). Our estimate is 100% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions