CZR
Caesars Entertainment, Inc.
$29.52
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 17.6% above fair value
You pay
$29.52
Bear
$15.45
Fair
$25.09
Bull
$38.17
Bear
$15.45
-47.7%
3% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$25.09
-15.0%
4% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$38.17
+29.3%
5% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
3.9%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (4% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
29%
Implied Market Multiple
12.6x
Market is pricing in (growth)
4.4%
vs 4.0% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (31 analysts)
$30.75
Divergence from AlphaVal
18%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 4% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $25.09 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions